Temperature and Climate Change

  • We are developing spatiotemporal models to quantify the temperature related respiratory disease burden in England and Wales. In particular, we are running simulation studies and comparing commonly used approaches for disease mapping and spatial regression to quantify the effect of temperature in respiratory hospital admissions. We are extending these models to incorporate hospitalisation and drug prescription costs, while propagating the uncertainty across the models. The main goal of this project is to use the different temperature trajectories, based on the different representative concentration pathways, and project the future temperature related respiratory disease burden in England and Wales. We will fully integrate our results in a Web application. The entire modelling framework will be available online and easily extended to other drivers of global disease burden.
  • Within a collaborative project with the University of São Paulo (School of Public Health) and the contribution of the University of Toronto (Dep. of Statistical Sciences), we are developing spatio-temporal methods for understanding the interrelations between climate change, local environmental conditions and arboviral disease dynamics in Brazil and the synchrony that these systems express.
Marta Blangiardo
Marta Blangiardo
Professor of Biostatistics